I laid five of my six bets before the nominations were announced, to get better odds. One of those bets (Leonardo DiCaprio as Best Actor for J. Edgar) failed at the nomination stage, but it was a second thought anyway when I became convinced that my initial Best Actor punt wasn't going to make it, but Leo (playing a real person, with a quirk, far from his own type) might. It turned out that my original thought was indeed nominated. So here's what's left:
Best Actor: Gary Oldman (10/1)
Best Actress: Viola Davis (5/2)
Best Picture: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (12/1)
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius (6/4)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Moneyball (5/1)
I've put £10 on each. So if I make over £60 in total, I'll have made a profit.
Now, you may, looking at the above, think I've gone completely mad. This is surely the year The Artist is going to sweep all before it! Well, I agree. It very probably will. But the odds reflect that. My nod in its direction for Best Director is because that was the only place where any value at all could be found.
I bet on Extremely Loud before it got such damning reviews, on the basis of the subject matter and how it's treated. I very much doubt I'll win that one. It's now gone much further out than 12/1. Viola Davis, however, was second favourite when I bet, and has now moved in to become favourite (because the Academy voting for Thatcher?!) I think she's my best shot apart from Director.
I added Moneyball very late when I checked on post-nomination value saw an Aaron Sorkin screenplay at 5/1.
I'd love to see Oldman win, but the film did no business in the States, and I really don't think he will. Unless Moneyball rescues me, I think the most likely outcome is that I'll wake up tomorrow £20 down. Cheerio!