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The General Election
I just got back from voting (Lib Dem, tactically, having been a lifelong Labour voter), something which I always find a joy. For one thing, elections are usually in Spring, and they speak of hope and new growth. For another, to be able to vote is a precious thing. But you'll have heard people talk endlessly about that before, so I won't go on and on.
It's extraordinary how things have worked out in the run up to this election, a politics geek's dream of twists and turns. Those who work for all the parties (and that's another job I'd like if I didn't have this one) will be desperately trying to manage chaos. Anything can happen in the next day or so, or should I say the next week, because I very much doubt we'll wake up with a new government tomorrow morning.
David Cameron went into this election thinking it'd be a cakewalk, that the British electorate would do what they always do, vote against something rather than for something, flip from one state to its perceived opposite. But two things were in place to change that pattern. Firstly, the ground state of the electorate was different, because, bizarrely, and for no other reason I can think of than to boost ailing sales, the Daily Telegraph had spent the previous year making sure the electorate thought that both Labour and the Tories were thoroughly corrupt. This is, of course, not the case. We in the UK enjoy tiny levels of actual political corruption compared to most of Europe. I think most of the MPs who were caught over-claiming on their expenses had been encouraged to think that this was the way they made up for their (genuinely too small) salaries. (That's one thing I hope an incoming government of any stripe does: pays backbench MPs a decent wage, so the stream of talent out of parliament ceases and we're not just left with the fanatics who'd do it for nothing.) So, oddly, a whiff of being 'establishment' clung to Cameron, not just because of his accent and bearing, but because his lot had been tarred with the same brush as the government. Look at that video of him being confronted by the student who says 'I don't believe you'. He looks not like the Leader of the Opposition, but like a cornered government minister. The Telegraph has been desperately trying to make up for this in the last couple of weeks, having doubtless had its collective editorial balls grabbed by Tory whips (ouch). But the damage had been done. The second factor that changed everything was the TV debates. The electorate watched in their masses, they got interested, and they saw three people on the stand. And the third one, surprisingly, was more telegenic than the first two, and he often seemed unhindered by actual policy. (Indeed, some of the things Nick Clegg has promised on television should surely send Lib Dem voters running to consult the manifesto: tighter border controls? Really?) He grabbed the niche of Mr. Nice Guy Not Grim At All, which had been the shoes in which Cameron thought he'd be standing on those nights. The debates were a triumph. The lack of audience applause made actual debate rather than rhetoric the order of the day, they exposed all but the best of tactics (I enjoyed it when Gordon, who turns out to be hopelessly charisma-free on TV, and is let down by his disability, to be frank, moved things to the economy and started thumping, and so grew suddenly in stature) and they let the participants underline what their policy differences were, what they all actually stood for. Immediately afterwards we were in a three party race, and that's changed everything.
Let me pause here for a moment to say: I've never believed 'they're all the same', and I loathe the cant, so prevalent in fandom, that they're all representatives of some great oppressive power. That just saves people from having to think, and gives them the enjoyable frisson of feeling oppressed without having ever stood up for anything. I think one good reason for a Lib Dem government would be to see if Lib Dem supporters, unlike a lot of Labour supporters, could get their heads around supporting people who are actually in charge, or if, in a horribly British way, they'd always prefer to be mentally in opposition.
So what do I think's going to happen? I have no idea. The polls are literally all over the place, and all possible governments now lie within their margins of error. I think a lot of lying to pollsters is going on, possibly in the area of spouses cheekily putting a cross by the Lib Dem candidate, and then exiting the booth wearing their blue ribbons. But I think two outcomes are the most likely, and these will both take a week or so to come into focus. I think either there'll be a formal Labour/Lib Dem coalition (the fulfilment of the New Labour project as one un-named MP was quoted as saying this week), where Labour offer the Lib Dems their own proposed form of proportional representation, instead of the Lib Dem one (and dear God, I hope this one has safeguards against the BNP getting an MP or two), and the Lib Dems say yes, but insist that, for the British public to see change, Gordon has got to go. (I think Gordon might do his party a genuinely heroic service by falling on his sword before such negotiations even begin.) So we end up with David Milliband as Prime Minister, Clegg as Deputy. Which might strike the public as odd. Or, David Cameron will edge enough seats to make a deal with various independents, or, if chaos reigns on the other benches, will try and hack out a minority government, with life or death votes on every single bloody issue, and dare the opposition to treat the public to another General Election.
Neither prospect fills me with joy. I think a government should have a clear mandate, and get stuff done. If the Lib Dems won outright, I'd be happy with that, because it'd suck the liberalism out of the Labour party, and it'd serve the Lib Dems right to find that they have to do bad things sometimes. I think the other crap thing about the British is that they sometimes think a hung parliament might be a good thing, because it'd... well, stop anyone doing anything. Because oppositional news reporting has taught them that politicians only ever do bad things. And there are some more informed folk who point to the various times and places where coalitions have worked (note, I don't count those situations where everyone involved is being bombed, I think that imminent invasion tends to focus the mind). I think where there's genuine common ground, with a quite liberal Labour party and a right-moving Lib Dem party, then good government might result. They could write a quick shared manifesto, share a whip, actually nail something together than could just about float. When it's the Tories in continual panic and MPs being hauled in for late night votes of confidence every other week... not so much. The prospect of Italian politics is rearing its ugly head. Coalitions aren't like the Great Council of the Fair Kingdom, where everyone dresses in robes and wisdom prevails after learned debate. They're like a Mexican standoff in Reservoir Dogs, about who's pointing a gun where and who can blackmail who.
But still, exciting times. All one can do is vote, and say to everyone that this time, even if you believe this wasn't the case before, it's important. Cheerio.
Labels:
General Election,
Politics
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It is exciting. Down here in Brighton, we're a bit insulated from the Labour/Lib Dem bit of it, as it seems to be a Green/Tory race, but the whole thing has been fascinating even so. Given that the past couple of elections have been about "how many seats will Labour lose?" it's exciting to have a situation where any number of possibilities, and possible governments, could arise.
As a political junkie across the pond, I"ve been following the 4-week(?) elections closely and noting all the similarities and differences between the two systems. However, it seems when America moves to the left and elects a Democrat, the UK moves to the right and elects a Tory majority.
All the major newspapers have had frontpage articles about the elections and C-Span will air live BBC coverage of the election this evening. Fun times for us politicos.
Someone needs to explain to Clegg that Britain already has an effective border system around Britain. It's called 'the sea'.
Unless he's planning to close the English/Welsh border because he's afraid of all those Doctor Who monsters tearing in. Politicians have believed stranger things.
One of the inevitable effects of a more representative democracy is that all the minority voices will become more visible, including those which one might dislike. Most European countries have had strong communist and fascist parties. No way to ban them and keep things democratic.
We could end up with a Lib Dem government in all but name. Clegg as deputy leader of the government and only an idiot would not accept Vince Cable as chancellor. I've been a Lib Dem voter for years and if I'm honest I wouldn't mind them taking unpopular choices as long as they were honest in doing it unlike the Labour goverment. Of course we all know the Tories are built on deception, buy into their front line spring clean and get the same old homophobic, racist, classist underbelly.
it's funny to me reading heatherfeather's post.. as a brit curently living in arizona, I haven't seen hide nor hair of any mention of the election on the news and especially not in my workplace (full of supposedly highly intelligent people).. any awareness is sorely lacking..
but this is arizona, afterall..
Just back from polling station. Life long socialist from a family of socialist. Voted Lib dem. Was either that or not vote period. So I figured vote tactically and see how it all unfolds.
What I don't want is another Torie Government.
BTW voted on way home from seeing Iron Man 2. Anyone seen it yet. Is it me or would Tony Stark make a good political leader:)
Very enjoyable and insightful commentary Mr. Cornell.
Went for the heart over head myself and voted Labour.
Interesting times...
Great piece. I too am angered by 'they're all the same'-ism, Something Nick Clegg very cynically exploited. I voted LidDem because my MP is Danny Alexander and I'm very happy with him - but I found it depressing how incredibly impressive people found Nick Clegg's ability to say 'I'm not him or him' repeatedly.
Gary-
Guess it must be an East Coast thing or the expatria factor Both the NY Times and Washington Post have articles re the election. I also have some Anglophile friends and a British coworker. Everyone else, I doubt they'd know who Cameron is.
Thanks Paul for one of the few rational writings I've seen tonight. Being a yank it's good to get some insight into the Brit system.
In the end we all get the government we deserve.
What may happen now: Clegg goes to the Tories for a deal, because they're the ones with the popular mandate. Julian: I'd outlaw the BNP, like several European countries do. Their presence is the sign of a neurotic, not a healthy, democracy. You will argue, you won't convince me.
If Clegg does get in bed with the Tories he might be able to water down some of their more right-wing policies. But is that really the best government we can hope for in the next 4 years or so? I really thought the Liberals had a better chance this time, but obviously people have voted for the devil they know :-)
I find this all very depressing, especially as my local Labour MPs have been booted out by Conservatives.
Very prescient post - you didn't get a quick spin in the TARDIS last night, did you?
Up here in Withington my main concern is the number of people who'd bothered to register but didn't get the chance to vote - I was amazed to see lengthy queues outside polling stations yesterday evening. All the areas similarly affected have a large student population - looks like there was complacency on the part of the Electoral Commission, maybe assuming that students might click a mouse to register but would never get their backsides off the sofa to turn out and attempt to vote.
Going through this campaign with two intelligent and informed teenagers of my own has been a real challenge to my middle-aged apathy and cynicism - they show a level of political engagement much greater than my own at their age!
Can't see Clegg getting in bed with the Tories to be honest. I suspect a Labour and Lib dem coalition is more likely, though to do that I'd insist that Brown steps down and Milliband because Prime minister with Clegg and deputy and maybe Brown back in his old spot of Chancellor. Or use the Lib Dems Shadow Chancellor.
This said. I'd have preferred that someone had won by a solid majority.
It was weird watching last night for the first couple of hours of it with Labour ahead. Then the turn around when they suddenly started losing all those seats.
As to the BNP I'd ban them. I mean that's the very least that can be done.
While I'm delighted at the BNP being defeated in Barking, I have to disagree with you about banning them - as you knew someone would. It's easy to declare a belief in freedom of speech when it's speech you agree with, but the true test is in defending speech you profoundly disagree with. If you can't then you don't really believe in freedom of speech at all.
- Rob Hansen
Mef: good to hear about your teenagers. Rob: no, I don't agree. A 5% entry level on some form of proportional representation would stop Nazis from pretending to be politicians. And I hear things like you've just said from nice people all the time, and it doesn't change my mind a jot.
Paul: Before I tune in for Doctor Who Confidential.
I just thought I'd run this question by you.
What you think the chances are of us having a second election in say October if things aren't resolved by then?
Just a frightening thought have been having.
Thanks
Ian
As a life long Labour supporter i have voted tactically for Lib Dems twice and will never do so again. The first time the Lib Dem candidate got elected and within months had swapped parties to Conservative and there's nothing anyone can do about it. This time i've realised i've voted in favour of a party thinking of forming an alliance with the very party i was trying to keep out. In future i'm sticking to voting according to principles because i'm on a hiding to nothing trying to out manoeuvre politicians.
Great twenty/20 cricket today
ani
I've made a poster for Brits to post once a Prime Minister's been chosen:
http://dknowsall.blogspot.com/2010/05/gift-for-my-uk-readers.html
I think you'll find it fitting. ;)
Hurm.
Looks like Libdem/Conservative coalition.
Not sure how I feel about that.
Think I should have voted Saxon.
Great thought, Ian Cullen.
Perhaps if we all just say together 'Doctor, Doctor, Doctor'
ani