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My Oscar Bets
Quick post to firm up this yearly ritual. What I'm after is value. If I agree that it's a 100% certainty that the favourite will win, and the odds will just give me pennies, I won't always bet. That's only worth doing if you're willing to put large sums of money down, and my rule is always that I only bet what I can lose without giving it a second thought. I'm not after winning all of these. I'm after winning one that will pay for all the others.
Best Picture: Inglourious Basterds at 14/1. Yes, I know. One of Avatar or The Hurt Locker will win. But... the odds on this picture are getting smaller and smaller, after producer Harvey Weinstein made one of his self-fulfilling prophecies. And it's a Jewish-themed movie. Remember how The Pianist surprised everyone? Yes, it's a long shot. That's the point.
Best Director: James Cameron at 5/2. Because Kathryn Bigelow is now 1/4 on.
Best Actor: Morgan Freeman for Invictus at 18/1. Of course Jeff Bridges is going to win it. There is no surer thing. But I just couldn't resist this perfect storm of all my rules for winning an Oscar, chief of which is: this is an perfect impersonation of a recognisable figure. (My other big rule is: as soon as Johnny Depp appears in a serious enough film, he has a Best Actor waiting for him.)
Best Actress: I broke my own rule and will make mere pennies when Sandra Bullock wins it at 8/13 on. The others just aren't going to. (Too many already (x2) young enough to have another go (x2).) Maybe there's just a touch of recognisable figure about Meryl Streep's Julia, but that'd only get me 7/4 anyway.
Best Supporting Actor: again, it's Christoph Waltz at bloody 1/25. No point in betting against for the hell of it.
Best Supporting Actress: it will almost certainly be Mo'Nique. But I just wonder if the Academy is ready for an African American villain who's from right at home, not a glorious bastard like Idi Amin. I'm wondering if a slight wince might bounce it elsewhere. And so I went for Anna Kendrick in Up In The Air (the film about which everyone will say otherwise, wait, that got nothing?!) at 12/1.
I put down a tenner on each of the above, so I'm looking to make more than £60. Please don't follow me, this is just a bit of fun for you at home. Until next time, when hopefully I'll have moved house, Cheerio!
Labels:
Oscars
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Hope you're house moving goes okay.
I listened to your interview with fanboy.com yesterday (around about issue 2 of Cap&Mi13)
I think you're brilliant.
Good rules.
Though I wouldn't bet on the Oscars anyway. Not because am not a fan of seeing them nor because I don't think peoples work deserves recognition.
Its simply because have not got a great head for numbers and odds and such. Plus even when you are armed with the favorites to win. Other things can still happen and completely surprise you.
What you say about Johnny Depp. So true. Great actor, and I look forward to seeing him get a gong for his work. Been a fan of his work all the way to 21 Jump Street and before that Platoon
Hope the move goes smoothly.
Had to share this. Sorry.
http://scifiwire.com/2010/03/spider-man-prays-for-uncle-ben-at-wailing-wall.php
Oscar winning performance if ever there was one. Better than Spider-man 3 even. Puts Avatar with the giant blue smurfs to shame.
Pure genius.
Thanks, Max, that's kind of you! And that thing with the wall is weird. Thanks, you two!
Nothing to do with this posting, but I linked to your fine site on the recent Britblog Roundup:
http://www.charlescrawford.biz/blog/bbru-259-the-sid-james-pink-floyd-edition
I am just up the road near Buckland. Fellow local blogger drink sometime?
Charles
It looks like we're very much on opposing sides in several things, Charles, but that's the joy of it, eh? Thanks for the link, and good luck with the blog.